{
  "written_before_new_search_results": true,
  "research_status": "Retrospective research. These historical years and the asset universe have already been examined in this conversation; chronological validation is not a genuinely untouched holdout.",
  "objective": "Raise CNY compound annual growth versus the 15/15/15/12.5/42.5 baseline. Prefer historical maximum drawdown <=15%; also show the frontier at <=20%. Report incremental CAGR and drawdown in percentage points. The user's +5pp CAGR for +2pp drawdown is an example, not an imposed exact utility function.",
  "user_constraints": "Stock caps explicitly relaxed by user. No leverage or shorts. Gold remains <=15% as previously requested. Retain stocks, dividend equities, gold and government bonds.",
  "search_guardrails": "Research choices, not user-mandated limits: Nasdaq target <=50%, dividend target >=10% in static search, gold target 5%-15%, bonds >=20%. Static stock total consequently <=75%. Dynamic defensive states may hold less dividend/gold; portfolio risk-asset targets total <=80%, each equity <=50%, gold <=15%. Actual weights drift between trades.",
  "window": "2016-10-21 to 2026-10-21, same as previous ten-year study. 512890 pre-listing official total-return index minus assumed annual0.6%; full actual-ETF check from2019-01-18. Index2014+ only warms signals.",
  "static_grid": "Nasdaq10..50 step5; S&P0..25 step5; dividend low vol10..30 step5; gold5,10,15; five-year treasury residual>=20. Quarterly rebalancing. Include exact baseline separately. Report all configurations and count.",
  "dynamic_bases": {
    "baseline": [0.15,0.15,0.15,0.125,0.425],
    "equal60": [0.20,0.20,0.20,0.10,0.30],
    "growth65": [0.30,0.15,0.20,0.10,0.25],
    "nasdaq40": [0.40,0.10,0.15,0.10,0.25],
    "nasdaq50": [0.50,0.00,0.15,0.10,0.25],
    "equity70": [0.35,0.15,0.20,0.10,0.20],
    "balanced70": [0.25,0.25,0.20,0.10,0.20]
  },
  "dynamic_rules": ["fixed monthly control", "40-week MA below -> half equity allocation, gold fixed", "40-week MA below -> half stock/gold allocation", "26/52-week returns relative to gov5, exposures0.25/0.625/1", "52-week covariance target portfolio volatility8%", "volatility10%", "volatility12%", "MA half stocks plus volatility10%", "104-week contrarian with confirmation for additions"],
  "signals": "For each monthly rebalance, use observations no later than 8 days before the calendar month begins. Execution is first common valuation/trading day of the month; start-date uses current month's lagged signals. No future-centered regression or future peak/trough decisions.",
  "cost": "Initial purchase and each side of turnover0.1%. Cash distributions reinvested. Fund ongoing costs already in actual NAV. Test shortlisted strategies at0.3% and0.5%, and with additional7-day signal delay.",
  "chronological_validation": "From2020 onward, each year's selection uses only the preceding3 years ending 8 days before Jan1. Rank eligible candidates by historical CAGR subject to training drawdown<=12% and volatility<=10% (preferred), or drawdown<=16% and volatility<=12.5% (expanded). Combine top3 candidates equally, execute their current monthly/quarterly target paths; actual trades charged at transitions. If no candidate qualifies use the baseline. Selection accounts for both static and dynamic candidate pool.",
  "additional_checks": "Compare selected fixed/dynamic rules over2016-2019,2020-2022,2023-2026, actual ETF period, market prices,3-year rolling windows, neighboring static weights, and5/10-year treasury alternatives in a shared actual period. Do not label full-sample winner as proven optimal or walk-forward research as future guarantee. No repeated threshold tuning to rescue failures."
}